TY - BOOK AU - Beck,M.B. TI - Environmental foresight and models: : a manifesto SN - 9780080440866 PY - 2002/// CY - Amsterdam, ; New York PB - : Elsevier KW - Política ambiental KW - Planificación ambiental KW - Degradación de recursos naturales KW - Teoría de sistemas KW - Modelos N1 - Incluye referencias bibliográficas; We have a problem ; Beginnings of a change of perspective ; Structural change : a definition ; The manifesto ; Epilogue / M.B. Beck -- Lake Erie and evolving issues of the quality of its water / W.M. Schertzer and D.C.L. Lam -- Impacts of acidic atmospheric deposition on the chemical composition of stream water and soil water / G.M. Hornberger -- The ozone problem / R.L. Dennis -- Belief networks : generating the feared dislocations / O. Varis -- Random search and the reachability of target futures / M.B. Beck, J. Chen and O.O. Osidele -- Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in models of environmental systems / K.J. Beven -- Simplicity out of complexity / P.C. Young and S. Parkinson -- Structural effects of landscape and land use on streamflow response / T.S. Kokkonen and A.J. Jakeman -- Elasto-plastic deformation of structure / M.B. Beck, J.D. Stigter and D. Lloyd Smith -- Detecting and forecasting growth in the seeds of change / J. Chen and M.B. Beck -- Probing the shores of ignorance / R.L. Dennis, J.R. Arnold and G.S. Tonnesen -- Parametric change as the agent of control / K.J. Keesman -- Identifying the inclination of a system towards a terminal state from current observations / A.V. Kryazhimskii and M.B. Beck ER -